Hurricane Genevieve strengthened to a major hurricane in the eastern Pacific, but forecast tracks keep the storm well offshore and the chance of a direct hit in Mexico is low. The cyclone has been intensifying over warm ocean waters but forecasters are watching for any surprises in the track of the storm that could affect coastal communities or maritime interests.

Hurricane Genevieve Mexico update, storm tracking across the Pacific, meteorologists watching closely Even if a hurricane doesn’t make landfall, it can still produce dangerous ocean swells, strong rip currents and hazardous marine conditions along parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast.

AP – Major hurricane Genevieve strengthens

Meteorologists call a hurricane a major hurricane if it is a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Such storms can bring damaging winds and dangerous seas, but the impact of these storms will depend on their location and projected track.

Genevieve has been in the middle of warm ocean temperatures and the correct atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclones to organise and strengthen. The forecast models are still monitoring these conditions to see if they persist over the next few days.

Depending on the environmental conditions it encounters as it crosses the Pacific, the hurricane can either strengthen or weaken.

Forecast: Storm Stays Offshore

Forecast guidance indicates Genevieve will stay out over the open waters for now and not track directly towards the Mexican coastline. So the latest official projections still show low odds of widespread land impacts.

Forecasts for tropical cyclones can change. Coastal residents and visitors should continue to monitor official updates, especially if the storm’s forecast track or forward speed changes.

Emergency managers are often hesitant to concentrate on the forecast track, as hazards can be far from the centre of the hurricane.

Coastal Swells, Rip Currents Remain Possible

Genevieve is expected to stall offshore, but strong swells from the hurricane could affect parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast.

These swells can cause hazardous surf…strong rip currents and dangerous conditions for swimmers…surfers and small craft. Some further coastal erosion may occur as a result of wave action.

When lifeguards or authorities warn beachgoers of dangerous surf conditions, they should stay out of the water.

Conditions At Sea Could Get Dangerous

This system has the potential to produce rough surf, surf and high winds that could affect commercial shipping, fishing vessels and recreational craft operating in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Mariners should check official marine forecasts before heading out and be prepared to alter travel plans if the forecast calls for hazardous weather along the route they plan to travel.

Port and harbour authorities may also provide advice based on local conditions and wave forecasts.

Residents will continue watching official forecasts

Even if the overall threat to land is low, hurricanes can change intensity or direction as weather patterns change. Forecast confidence generally increases with time but updates are critical throughout the life of the storm.

Officials have urged people living along Mexico’s Pacific coast to heed warnings from the weather agency, not speculation on social media. Marine warnings and coastal advisories are the latest forecasts and give the clearest picture of any developing hazards.

Hurricane season is still upon us and it’s important to be prepared even if they are predicted to stay out at sea.

Sources

• National Hurricane Centre (NHC) – Tropical cyclone advisories, watches and warnings, storm tracks, intensity updates and official forecasts.
• National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN) – Official information and coastal advisories for Mexico, national weather forecast.
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Hurricane research, satellite observations, marine forecasts and tropical weather.
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) – Standards for monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclones, and coordinating international weather.