One of the biggest U.S. weather stories heading into winter 2026-27 is shaping up to be a potentially historic Super El Niño. According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre, El Nino is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
The Farmers’ Almanac is also calling for a very active winter, with significant differences between regions. Its forecast calls for a busy southern storm track, rapid pulses of snow and frigid temperatures over parts of the North and a chaotic mix of rain, sleet, ice and snow throughout the North-east.
Farmers’ Almanac Calls for More Snow, Storms
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts the most active storm development to occur across the southern U.S. The forecast storm track could be anywhere from Southern California and the Desert South-west to Texas, the Gulf Coast and the South-east.
Colder air moving into the region at the same time as the increased moisture could yield some storms with sleet, freezing rain and heavy, wet snow. More snow in the mountains may also benefit the Southern Rockies this season. NOAA Says Strong El Niño Is Coming
The latest outlook from NOAA supports the larger El Niño pattern behind the seasonal forecast. The agency says the event has strengthened considerably, with sea-surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.
NOAA currently puts the odds of El Niño becoming very strong during the fall and winter of 2026-27 at greater than 50 percent. It also puts the chances of an unusually strong event at 69 percent in October-December.
Heavy Wet Snow Possible in North-east
The North-east could see some of the country’s most complicated winter weather. Farmers’ Almanac expects more rain and mixed precipitation along the coast but heavy wet snow periods for communities inland, especially in January and February.
Depending on small changes in temperature and storm tracks, a system may produce rain, sleet, freezing rain or accumulating snow. That means conditions could change quickly as individual storms roll through.
Cold Snaps Strike Northern States
The West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will likely see temperatures closer to normal overall, but that does not necessarily mean a quiet winter.
The Farmers’ Almanac is predicting fast-moving storms, sudden snow squalls, strong winds and brief outbreaks of bitter cold. Warmer periods could interrupt the cold spells leading to repeated freeze-thaw cycles in parts of the central and northern United States.
Super El Niño Doesn’t Equal Snow for All
The Super El Niño snow forecast is getting more and more attention, but meteorologists are warning that El Niño does not always mean heavy snow for all parts of the country. NOAA provides general probabilities for the season, not predictions for a specific snowstorm months in advance.
El Niño can shift the jet stream and influence where storms develop, but snowfall is ultimately driven by temperatures, storm tracks and the availability of cold air. Locations and timing of major snowstorms will be clearer much closer to winter.
Sources
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- Farmers’ Almanac — Predicts “mixed bag” of snow, cold, storms and mixed precipitation across various U.S. regions for winter.
- National Weather Service — calls for better than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño in the winter of 2026-27.
- NOAA Climate Prediction Centre – Odds of an extremely strong El Niño in October-December 2026 are 69%.
- Reuters — The developing El Niño of 2026 could become one of the strongest on record, reports say.
- Houston Chronicle — Describes how the strong El Niño could result in wetter, stormier conditions in Texas and the southern U.S.
Also read: Farmers’ Almanac Winter Forecast Reveals What Weather Americans Could Expect This Season
